If you are going to make anything out of betting at the racecourse, assessing the race itself is an essential move alongside studying an individual horse’s age, weight, etc. But what does it mean to assess a horse race? If you are serious about making a well-informed betting decision, then read on these five tips for assessing horse races.
Assess the race conditions
An essential starting point for assessing a horse race is to analyze the condition of the race. This includes the course or ground where the horse will compete. Many punters are guilty of ignoring this factor but are quick to jump at the “favorite horse.” If a thoroughbred has a good record on the current course, then that’s comforting news.
The truth is, it isn’t totally easy to ascertain what type of ground the course is, so overplaying this factor is possible. Your best move is to combine this factor with a trip to make an informed decision. Let your race card info guide you, which you can also check out at Timeform.
Analyze the trainer’s form.
Let’s face it; some trainers perform better than others. Factoring this fact into your investigation instead of assuming it’s all about the horse will go a long way in helping your decision. One of the most basic ways of assessing a trainer’s form is by analyzing a tipster or system’s strike rate.
What’s more, you’ll do well to adopt more metrics that will cover stats like the percentage of rivals defeated, percentage of run-to-form, etc. This way, you have a broader picture since you are assessing from more samples that eliminate the bias of a few samples.
The horse’s bloodline is undoubtedly worthy of consideration before backing. The sire, dam’s, or siblings record can provide you with what to expect from the progeny at a racecourse.
Do we need to remind you that the early phase of the flat season usually ushers in quite a number of three-year-old thoroughbreds (which usually want to take on middle distances for the first time)? In this regard, a horse’s pedigree is one of the key determining factors since they are about to conquer uncharted courses. The Pedigree information will tell you how much they’ll likely improve in the future.
Use the rating of a horse.
The ratings of a horse are a tested and trusted way of assessing a race, and it’s a good pointer that a horse will deliver since many factors determine the ratings of a horse. The experts consider so many things you may not have the patience to look into at the racecourse, including a horse’s latest performance.
Those that establish ratings do so with performance figures that matter as the more recent performance of the horse, the better it is for determining its form and rating.
Though this can take a chunk of your time, it’s one of the best ways of knowing horses that have been dropping the bar or stepping up. When you are watching replays, try not to conclude in a winning streak. You’ll do well to consider the race type and compare it with previous races a horse has faced in the recent past.
The truth is, a horse may be performing well because it is now competing in easier races than before. You’ll notice horses that obviously dropped a class and those that are more subtle. One or two poor performances inane necessarily a reason to not back a horse.